Oil Glut Calls May Be Getting Ahead of Reality

Oil Glut Calls May Be Getting Ahead of Reality By Irina Slav - Jul 02, 2026, 11:00 AM CDT Oil prices have fallen as traders bet on recovering Hormuz exports and renewed oversupply, but analysts warn the rebound reflects delayed tanker departures rather than a full restoration of Middle East production. Production remains well below pre-war levels in key Gulf producers, while high shipping costs, limited insurance coverage, and slow inbound tanker traffic continue to constrain supply. Despite record U.S. crude output, uncertainty over Iran, Hormuz, and regional production means the market may be underestimating ongoing supply risks.